Neural Signals (United States)

Easy-Negative Inflation in Wildfire-Risk Modeling: Honest Evaluation, Seasonal Recalibration, and a Public Prospective Benchmark from an Operational System

We report on the evaluation and operation of Tutela Ignis, a publicly deployed machine-learning wildfire-risk system for mainland Portugal that issues daily ignition-risk scores on a 1 km grid (88,527 continental cells) from a gradient-boosted ensemble over 63 tabular features dr...