Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy of Sciences

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN: A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Inclusive economic growth has become a central priority for Uzbekistan as the country consolidates its transition toward a market-oriented, structurally diversified economy, following the acceleration of institutional and economic reforms initiated. As aggregate output has expand...

THE ROLE OF EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION IN ENSURING SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN UZBEKISTAN

Export diversification is widely regarded as a central mechanism through which resourcedependent and transition economies can reduce external vulnerability and secure sustainable long-run growth. This article examines the role of export diversification in ensuring sustainable eco...

Future Redistribution of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Risk in Two Contrasting CMIP6 Scenarios

Abstract We analyze North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity using the Columbia HAZard model to downscale 12 models from CMIP6 under the SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios—representing low and high radiative forcing, respectively. Despite greater warming under SSP5‐8.5, basin‐w...

Centered‐Innovation MA for Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA: Theoretical Equivalence and an Application to Bank‐Asset Shares

ABSTRACT We study a minimal change to an observation‐driven Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA (B–DARMA) for compositional time series: replace the raw additive log‐ratio (ALR) residual in the moving‐average block with a centered innovation that subtracts the Dirichlet conditional ALR mean,...