Aletheia House

Testing Multi-Domain Convergence Against Negative Cases: A backtest of one open-source alert rule on NATO's Southern Flank, under a protocol fixed in advance, and what open sources could not supply

Strategic foresight commonly holds that crises announce themselves through weak anomalies appearing across several domains at once, and that their convergence carries more warning value than any single signal. The proposition underpins the indications-and-warning tradition and re...