Victor Andre Ariza Flores

Tail-Dependent Price Escalation Risk in Road Projects: A Hybrid LSTM-Gumbel Copula Model for Probabilistic Contingency Estimation

Abstract Road and bridge projects are exposed to escalation in key construction inputs such as diesel, cement, structural steel, and construction steel, where common shocks can generate jointly adverse price movements and weaken fixed-percentage contingency practices. Prior const...

Cost–Accuracy Trade-Offs in Unpaved Rural Road Condition Assessment: Visual Indices and Smartphone-Based IRI in the Ecuadorian Andes

More than 90% of the road network of Loja, Ecuador, is unpaved and lacks an official condition metric. Low-cost measures relate to the IRI on pavements, but not demonstrably on unpaved roads. A 15 km Andean corridor was surveyed in one dry season with four visual–manual indices (...