Tiffany A. Shaw

Predicting regional gray swans via translocation: AI weather models and Dubai’s unprecedented 2024 rainfall

Artificial intelligence (AI) models have transformed weather forecasting, but their skill for unprecedented weather extremes is unclear. Here, we analyze GraphCast, AIFS, and FuXi forecasts of the unprecedented 2024 Dubai storm, which had twice the training set’s highest rainfall...

Building blocks of localized storm tracks: revisiting asymmetries between the NH and SH in storm track strength

An intermediate-complexity moist general circulation model is used to investigate the forcing of localized storm tracks by land–sea contrast, horizontal gradients in ocean heat uptake, planetary albedo, and topography. The additivity of the response to these building blocks is in...