Ricardo Wagner Correia Guerra Filho

An Open Day-Ahead Load Forecaster on 43 U.S. Balancing Authorities: Ahead of the Published Forecasts, Not of What They Could Be (Cardinal Grid Notes, No. 3)

A day-ahead load forecaster built only from public data (hourly demand from Form EIA-930 and the NOAA HRRR, NBM and GFS weather forecasts available at 9 a.m. of the day before) was developed on eleven U.S. balancing authorities (BAs) and run unchanged, day by day, on the 43 BAs o...

Day-Ahead Load Forecast Accuracy of U.S. Balancing Authorities, 2015–2026: A Scorecard from Public EIA-930 Data (Cardinal Grid Notes, No. 1)

Balancing authorities in the contiguous United States report to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, through Form EIA-930, both the hourly demand that occurred and the day-ahead demand forecast they produced the previous day. This note scores those forecasts for the full p...

Seven Daily Profiles, Three, or None? Weekday, Day Type and Weather in the Daily Load Shape of U.S. Balancing Authorities (Cardinal Grid Notes, No. 2)

Methods that work on electricity load series rely on a notion of the typical daily profile, and practice differs on how many to keep: one per weekday, or one per day type (workday, Saturday, Sunday) with a list of special days. This note compares the alternatives on the public EI...

Seven Daily Profiles, Three, or None? Weekday, Day Type and Weather in the Daily Load Shape of U.S. Balancing Authorities (Cardinal Grid Notes, No. 2)

Methods that work on electricity load series rely on a notion of the typical daily profile, and practice differs on how many to keep: one per weekday, or one per day type (workday, Saturday, Sunday) with a list of special days. This note compares the alternatives on the public EI...