Peichen Gong

Inventory conditions and tariff pass-through: evidence from U.S. softwood lumber

Using 25 years of monthly U.S.–Canada softwood lumber data and state-dependent local projections, we find that marginal tariff pass-through at six months declines monotonically with the pre-existing inventory-to-shipments ratio, from 1.8% per percentage point at the 10th percenti...