Michael S. Lewis‐Beck

Demslide or republican resilience? A political history forecast of the 2026 us congressional elections

The history book on the shelf is always repeating itself," an oft-cited line from ABBA's song Waterloo, captures the intuition that politics often shows persistence and is governed by identifiable patterns or "laws."Building on this, we take a structural approach to election pred...

Political Economy Forecasts: The 2026 Midterms

We employ a political economy model to forecast the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections in the House and Senate.Earlier versions of our model have been utilized, to good effect, since 2010.The model draws on sound theory, which posits the importance of political and economic fu...