Mark Spektor

Infinite Debt: The Happy Default: On the Day the Bill Went Unpaid, We Were Still Glad We Had Borrowed—and Somebody Lent Again

Version 1.0, 11 October 2026. Abstract Imagine a Tuesday in April 2087. A government announces that it will not repay its oldest bonds in full. Pensioners lose money, creditors take losses, and some citizens are furious. Yet the banks remain open, the infrastructure built with ea...

The Price of Resilience: Input-Cost Shocks in European Supply Chains under EU Sanctions on Russia

Version 1.1, 17.09.2026. Abstract Do broad-based sanctions break supply chains, or can open economies absorb geopolitical shocks through costly substitution? This paper studies the 2022 EU sanctions against Russia as a quasi-experimental input-cost shock to European manufacturing...

Robots and Jobs Revisited: A Bit-Exact Replication, Shift-Share Anatomy, and Capital-Stock Extension of Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020)

Version 1.01, 16 September 2026. This paper revisits the robot-exposure design of Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020). The first contribution is a bit-exact replication of a deliberately narrow benchmark: Table 7, columns 3 and 6. Starting from the underlying data sources, I reconstruct...