Mark Marcus Carpenter

From Persistency Curves to a Retention Budget: Voluntary Policy Discontinuation in a Synthetic Indonesian Life Insurance Portfolio

Voluntary discontinuation of life insurance policies (lapse, surrender, non-renewal) erodes the value of an in-force book. This preprint studies it end to end on a fully synthetic portfolio of 40,920 policies issued between 2022 and 2025, built from seven linked tables with known...