Justin Lessler

Assessing model error in counterfactual worlds

Counterfactual scenario modelling exercises that ask 'what would happen if?' are one of the most common ways we plan for the future. Despite their ubiquity in planning and decision-making, scenario projections are rarely evaluated retrospectively. Differences between projections...

Generative diffusion models for spatiotemporal influenza forecasting

Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture multimodal uncertainty or emergent trends....