Jeffrey Satinover

Graded Branch Unpredictability Near Nonlinear Transitions: A Decision-Scale Framework and Held-Out Energy-Balance Demonstration

Forecast laws near nonlinear transitions may be poorly concentrated even when they are not cleanly bimodal. For a conditional law P(t,h) on a metric state space, we study Uδ(t,h) = 1 − supₐ P(t,h){d(Y,a) ≤ δ}: the minimum probability that a point forecast misses the realization b...