Hamish Paton

How good are the Ministry of Justice prison population projections?

Walkforward Research Paper 2026/02. Version 1.0, September 2026. Eighteen editions of the Ministry of Justice prison population projections since 2008, with every central projection scored against what happened at every horizon. The projections have been too high at every horizon...

What the gilt move does to the Budget: a pre-registered nowcast of the OBR's headroom number for 28 October 2026

The Chancellor's headroom is the OBR's forecast of the current budget in 2029-30. It was a £23.6bn surplus in March. Since the OBR's market window closed in January, gilt yields have risen by about two thirds of a percentage point across the curve and markets have gone from prici...