Fabrício Polifke da Silva

Lead-Time Sensitivity of GFS Forecasts for the Deadly 2011 Nova Friburgo Disaster (Brazil): A Hindcast-Based Synoptic and Thermodynamic Assessment

Abstract The catastrophic rainfall of 11–12 January 2011 triggered hundreds of landslides and flash floods in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, with Nova Friburgo among the affected municipalities. This paper assesses how the predictability of this event dep...