Fabrício Polifke da Silva

Shifting Patterns of Precipitation Extremes in the S outheast A tlantic Basin— B razil: From Observed Trends to Future Projections

ABSTRACT Understanding the variability and evolution of precipitation extremes associated with climate change is essential to support adaptation strategies, risk management, and civil protection. In this context, this study investigates the climatology, observed trends, and futur...

Lead-Time Sensitivity of GFS Forecasts for the Deadly 2011 Nova Friburgo Disaster (Brazil): A Hindcast-Based Synoptic and Thermodynamic Assessment

Abstract The catastrophic rainfall of 11–12 January 2011 triggered hundreds of landslides and flash floods in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, with Nova Friburgo among the affected municipalities. This paper assesses how the predictability of this event dep...