Emily Howerton

Challenges for the effectiveness of infectious disease interventions during global change

Global change, including climate change, land-use change, and increased human mobility, is expected to have complex effects on the transmission, evolution, and emergence of infectious diseases 1 , 2 . Current research agendas aim to understand how these environmental and anthropo...

Assessing model error in counterfactual worlds

Counterfactual scenario modelling exercises that ask 'what would happen if?' are one of the most common ways we plan for the future. Despite their ubiquity in planning and decision-making, scenario projections are rarely evaluated retrospectively. Differences between projections...