Didier Sornette

Design and Implementation of a ∼25-Yr Pseudoprospective Earthquake Forecasting Experiment in China (AoyuX)

Abstract Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood (LL) scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet fat tails and out-of-range observations (realized counts exceeding all simulations) can bias model ranking. We develo...