Brian Guarino

Pre-registration, Version 6: Repairing the Water CHF Blend Where Version 4's Curve Turns Up, Blind-Tested Against the 2006 Look-Up Table and Version 5

Pre-registration of a blind test, frozen on 10 October 2026 before any CHF value of a test article was seen. Version 5 of this programme, a local blend of the 2006 look-up table, the version 4 π table and a corrected table, passed its blind test against the table on 42 water poin...

Pre-registration, Version 5: A Local Blend of the 2006 Look-Up Table, the π Table and a Corrected Table for Water CHF, Blind-Tested on Laboratories Outside the Table's Database

Pre-registration of a blind test, frozen on 9 October 2026 before any CHF value of a test article was seen. After the version 4 freeze (doi:10.5281/zenodo.23254782), an exploratory round scored three ways of predicting critical heat flux (CHF) in water tubes on 24,156 water rows,...

Pre-registration: Does a Water-Trained Dimensionless Critical Heat Flux Model Predict R-134a? A Fluid-to-Fluid Test Against the Scaled 2006 Look-Up Table

Pre-registration of a fluid-to-fluid test, frozen on 8 October 2026 before any test article was opened. Version 3 of a Buckingham π model for critical heat flux (doi:10.5281/zenodo.23225465), fitted to water alone, is applied unchanged to R-134a using R-134a properties and its ow...

Pre-registration, Version 3: A Near-Critical Dimensionless Critical Heat Flux Model Against the 2006 Look-Up Table

Two pre-registered tests of a compact Buckingham π model for critical heat flux (CHF) have failed against the 2006 look-up table. The second failed above 20 MPa, beyond the pressure range of its training data. This third version adds the reduced distance from the critical pressur...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric, Paper IV. Winter Storm Elliott: Does the Buffer Group Travel?

Papers I to III of this series built the buffer group ΠB = Ta/Tx for the edge between two infrastructure nodes, tested it plant by plant on the February 2021 Texas chain, and priced its hours with a cost group ΠC = ca/(vCd), all on one event. This paper reads a second. Winter Sto...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric: Buffered Edges as a Complete Dimensionless Basis for Interdependent Infrastructure

Paper I of the Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric (GIDM). Infrastructure fails in chains. The February 2021 freeze in Texas began at frozen wellheads, ran through load-shed gas processing plants, took 61,800 MW of generation offline, and ended in boil-water notices for almo...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric: Buffered Edges as a Complete Dimensionless Basis for Interdependent Infrastructure

Paper I of the Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric (GIDM). Infrastructure fails in chains. The February 2021 freeze in Texas began at frozen wellheads, ran through load-shed gas processing plants, took 61,800 MW of generation offline, and ended in boil-water notices for almo...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric, Paper III: The Water Edge at the Tap and the Price of an Hour of Autonomy

Paper III of the Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric (GIDM). Abstract. Papers I and II of this series derived the buffer group ΠB = Ta/Tx on every edge of an infrastructure dependency graph and tested it on the February 2021 Texas chain, leaving two things open: the water ed...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric, Paper II: Plant-Level Buffer Groups and the Failure Sequence of the Texas Chain

Paper I of this series derived the buffer group ΠB = Ta/Tx on every edge of an infrastructure dependency graph and reported the February 2021 Texas chain edge by edge as bound or held. This paper operationalises the group against four public datasets: ERCOT's unit-level outage re...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric, Paper IV. Winter Storm Elliott: Does the Buffer Group Travel?

Papers I to III of this series built the buffer group ΠB = Ta/Tx for the edge between two infrastructure nodes, tested it plant by plant on the February 2021 Texas chain, and priced its hours with a cost group ΠC = ca/(vCd), all on one event. This paper reads a second. Winter Sto...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric: Buffered Edges as a Complete Dimensionless Basis for Interdependent Infrastructure

Paper I of the Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric (GIDM). Infrastructure fails in chains. The February 2021 freeze in Texas began at frozen wellheads, ran through load-shed gas processing plants, took 61,800 MW of generation offline, and ended in boil-water notices for almo...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric: Buffered Edges as a Complete Dimensionless Basis for Interdependent Infrastructure

Paper I of the Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric (GIDM). First revision, 20 September 2026. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22864280. Infrastructure fails in chains. The February 2021 freeze in Texas began at frozen wellheads, ran through load-shed gas processing plants, took 61,800 MW...

The Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric: Buffered Edges as a Complete Dimensionless Basis for Interdependent Infrastructure

Paper I of the Guarino Infrastructure Dependency Metric (GIDM). First revision, 20 September 2026. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22864280. Infrastructure fails in chains. The February 2021 freeze in Texas began at frozen wellheads, ran through load-shed gas processing plants, took 61,800 MW...

Beyond Headcount: Contractor Support, Organic Sustainment, and the Economics of Permission

This paper proposes a dimensionless framework for comparing contractor and organic (government) sustainment labor for military systems. Its thesis is that the choice between a government technician and a contractor is not a headcount question and cannot be settled by comparing tw...

The Fragmentation Ceiling: Dimensionless Groups for Nurse Staffing Adequacy

Nursing capacity is usually treated as headcount times hours. This paper proposes that it is not: task switching consumes a fraction of every nurse-hour exposed to it, and that fraction is the product of two observable quantities, an interruption rate and a per-interruption cost...

The Guarino Manufacturing Effectiveness Metric: Overall Equipment Effectiveness and the Lean Six Sigma Quantitative Core as Complete Dimensionless Bases

Overall equipment effectiveness is taught as an industrial convention: three factors, availability times performance times quality, adopted because decades of practice found them useful. This paper proves that it is not a convention. Over the minimal variable set of discrete manu...