Aashan Javed

When Does a Frozen Time-Series Foundation Model's Uncertainty Fail, and What Actually Fixes It?

Do frozen time-series foundation models produce trustworthy prediction intervals under distribution shift? This record contains the code, logs, results and manuscript for a shift-stratified reliability audit of frozen Chronos-Bolt and Chronos-T5 on public GluonTS benchmarks, runn...

When Does a Frozen Time-Series Foundation Model's Uncertainty Fail, and What Actually Fixes It?

Open time-series foundation models (TSFMs) are deployed zero-shot with their native prediction intervals read as calibrated. Using frozen Chronos models on public benchmarks we show: (1) native interval coverage collapses under regime shift (86% to 72% at nominal 80%; 82% to 50%...

Calibrated Station-Scale Temperature Downscaling from a Temperature-Agnostic Geospatial Foundation Model

We downscale coarse climate variables to station-scale temperature using frozen embeddings from a temperature-agnostic geospatial foundation model (Clay v1.5), and study when the resulting uncertainty can be trusted. Across three climate regimes, embedding-based decoders reduce R...