Bringing back transit fares could drive away many new riders

A survey across five U.S. transit agencies suggests fare increases may reduce ridership more than expected after a fare-free period.

Editorial illustration — not from the study.

Researchers surveyed riders at five U.S. transit agencies operating fare-free services and examined how they responded to possible changes in fares, travel time, waiting time and walking time. Their analysis found that riders were especially responsive to the return of fares compared with increases in travel time.

The study estimates that 50% of new riders in the sample could stop using transit if fares rose above $1.30. It also estimates that the agencies could lose half of their overall ridership if fares rose above $1.90, although these figures describe modeled responses to fare changes rather than observed outcomes after an actual fare reinstatement.

How riders responded to fares

Riders were estimated to be 7.6 times more likely to reduce their transit use for each dollar added to the fare than expected from earlier views of fare sensitivity. A $1 reinstated fare was perceived as equivalent to about 20 additional minutes of travel time, while a $2 fare was comparable to about 35 extra minutes.

The study estimated that half of the new riders in its sample could stop riding if fares exceeded $1.30. For the full sample of agencies, a fare above $1.90 was associated with an estimated 50% loss in ridership.

Why fare reinstatement matters

The findings suggest that agencies may need to treat fare reinstatement differently from ordinary fare changes. Riders who began using transit when it was free may be particularly sensitive to even modest prices, so bringing back fares could remove some of the ridership gains associated with fare-free service. The results provide information for agencies considering whether to introduce, maintain or reverse fare-free policies.

Evidence and caveats

The study used 2024 survey data from riders at five U.S. transit agencies and four statistical models to estimate responses to changes in fares, in-vehicle time, waiting time and walking time. The reported ridership effects are estimates based on stated survey responses and model results, not measurements of what happened after fares were actually reinstated. Because the evidence comes from five agencies and the abstract does not give the sample size or describe the agencies in detail, the findings may not apply equally to all transit systems or riders.

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